
Vision – AI is not a Hype – it’s Real!
Vision M&A Report Q3 2026
October 2026 – M&A trends, valuation multiples and transactions
A year ago we called cybersecurity the software sector’s resilient outperformer. Since then the thesis has been stress-tested and confirmed. In early 2026, fears that AI could disrupt established cybersecurity vendors triggered a sharp sell-off. Multiples have since more than doubled from their low, and our cybersecurity index has gained 172% since January 2024, against 85% for the NASDAQ-100 and 33% for software overall. At 6.2x EV/NTM revenue, cybersecurity remains the most highly valued software vertical.

Managing Partner ARTHOS
Expert in Digital Services & Software M&A

Gartner expects global security spending to rise almost 13% to around $249bn in 2026. German IT security budgets are expected to grow by 9.9% to EUR 12.2bn. NIS2 and DORA are now being actively enforced, and AI is reshaping both attack and defence: 89% of organisations report AI-enabled attacks, while machine and agent identities already outnumber human users by more than 80 to 1.
With 336 software and services transactions through Q3, 2026 is heading for a record year. Google closed its $32bn acquisition of Wiz, Palo Alto Networks completed the $25bn takeover of CyberArk, and ServiceNow paid $7.75bn for Armis. Strategic acquirers account for 92% of deal value, AI security deals have increased strongly, and identity attracts around 70% of disclosed value. Platform vendors prefer to acquire rather than develop in-house, and each large transaction creates integration gaps that are closed through mid-sized add-on acquisitions.
Digital sovereignty has become a deal rationale: Airbus acquired Quarkslab, Leonardo bought Becrypt and Axiomatics, and IBM took over Logiq in the UK. US strategic buyers pay attractive prices for European assets, as Proofpoint’s $1.8bn purchase of Hornetsecurity shows, while private equity builds platforms in identity and managed security. Investor demand clearly extends beyond pure software vendors to IT service and consulting firms with a credible cybersecurity practice.

The buyer universe for cybersecurity-related businesses has rarely been broader or better funded. Owners considering a transaction within the next two to three years should use 2026 to start preparing: recurring revenue transparency, certifications and a convincing AI story are what separate average from premium valuations. We would welcome the opportunity to discuss positioning and timing confidentially.
For more insights, valuation multiples and notable transactions sign up for our M&A Software Newsletter to access the ARTHOS Software M&A Report October 2026.
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