Digital Services M&A Report:
Digital Agencies – valuations recovering, M&A window opening

September 2026 – M&A trends, valuation multiples and transactions

Personal Note: Digital & Marketing Agencies: Valuations recovering – and the M&A window is opening for well-positioned players

While the macroeconomic backdrop in Europe and Germany remains demanding, equity markets have looked through the noise. After a pronounced de-rating on AI disruption fears, culminating in the February 2026 sector sell-off, Digital & Marketing Agencies have rebounded by approximately 25% in recent months, as Publicis lifted its FY26 organic growth guidance.

Digital Services sub-sectors diverge: Digital & Marketing Agencies recovered while IT Consulting companies are still trading well below its peak

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Arne Tödt

Managing Partner ARTHOS
Expert in Digital Services & Software

arne.toedt@arthos.de Linkedin
Graph: Digital Services sub-sectors diverge: Digital & Marketing Agencies recovered while IT Consulting trade well below its peak
Notes: All indices have been rebased to 100 as of 01 June 2024; Companies within ARTHOS indices were capped at 15% as of 01 June 2024, with excess market capitalization proportionally redistributed. Sources: Capital IQ (as of 01 September 2026)

Valuations are recovering, but selectively. Sector trading multiples have re-rated from a low of ~6.0x in June to 8.2x NTM EV/EBIT in September 2026, though still well below early-2025 levels. In private markets, the spread is even wider: agencies with recurring retainers, proprietary data or productised AI tooling command 8–12x EBIT, while project-heavy, people-dependent models clear at 5–7x. The market is no longer pricing agencies – it is pricing business models.

Digital & Marketing Agencies stocks valuations recovered in Q3 2026 on an improved growth outlook, supporting a favourable M&A environment after AI-driven share price pressure

Graph: Digital & Marketing Agencies stocks valuations recovered in Q3 2026 on an improved growth outlook, supporting a favourable M&A environment after AI-driven share price pressure
Sources: Capital IQ (as of 01 September 2026); Mordor Intelligence Report, Gartner press release

Deal activity has followed. Disclosed deal value more than doubled year-on-year to €12.2bn in H1 2026, albeit on fewer, larger deals.
Two forces drive this renewed positive M&A momentum: strategics are buying capability rather than capacity, and private equity executing buy-and-build around differentiated founder-led shops. Underlying both, generative AI is the hinge, compressing rate cards for commoditised services while raising the value of measurement, creator access and owned IP.

Digital Services M&A deal value rose 83% YoY to €33bn in H1 2026, albeit on fewer, larger deals

Graph: Digital Services M&A deal value rose 83% YoY to €33bn in H1 2026, albeit on fewer, larger deals
Sources: Capital IQ (as of 01 September 2026)

Looking ahead, prospective buyers will continue to concentrate on a handful of growth areas and will follow the channels that are winning the budget. Nearly 80% of global ad spend now flows into retail media, paid search and social platforms, with social media, connected TV and retail media each growing at low double-digit rates while linear TV is in structural decline.

The M&A market mirrors this shift: the most sought-after capabilities today are creator and influencer marketing, retail-media management and CTV expertise – evidenced by Accenture’s acquisition of Whalar, Publicis’ $2.2bn purchase of LiveRamp and more than 80 creator-economy acquisitions since early 2025. For German agencies with proven credentials in social commerce, creator activation
or retail-media execution, this translates directly into scarcity value with both strategic and financial buyers.

For German agency founders and owners, this is a rare alignment: recovering multiples, deep buyer pools and scarcity value for quality assets. We would welcome a confidential conversation on how these dynamics apply to your business.

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